To that end, the region is . During the George W. Bush administration, U.S. forces in the Philippines were focused primarily on aiding the Philippine military in its counterterror fight. As a result of this shift, China now seeks to control sea lines of communication, ensure national prosperity and continue economic growth and national greatness; the South China Sea plays a massive part in this. Giving ground on vital interests in Asia will not encourage greater cooperation on global issues. Networking Social Entrepreneurship in Southeast Asia: Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative (YSEALI) program, The High Price of Neglecting Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy, Environmental Change and Security Program, North Korea International Documentation Project, Nuclear Proliferation International History Project, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, The Middle East and North Africa Workforce Development Initiative, Science and Technology Innovation Program, Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition. Michael Green, Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair; Dr. Zack Cooper, Fellow, Japan Chair; Bonnie Glaser, Senior Adviser for Asia and Director, China Power Project; Andrew Shearer, Senior Adviser on Asia-Pacific Security; and Greg Poling, Director Asia Maritime Transparency Initiativeto provide the analytical context and some fundamental principles that should guide strategic thinking on South China Sea policy. In a first, a Modi-Obamajoint statementlast year explicitly raised concerns over the South China Sea and called on all parties to avoid the threat or use of force and pursue resolution of territorial and maritime disputes through all peaceful means.. Brunei's statement seems to present a unified front with the Philippines and Vietnam, in preparation for its ASEAN chairmanship in 2021, where ASEAN and China hope to finalise the formulation of the code of conduct to reduce tensions in the South China Sea. What evidence is there of increased projection of Maritime Power? Cobra Gold, hosted by Thailand and led by the United States, is the largest annual multilateral military exercise in Asia. President Musharraf requested China to invest in this important strategic chokepoint in the Indian Ocean., to which China agreed. India and Vietnam, while acknowledging the strategic importance of the SCS and their volatile position when it comes to China's rising power, are edging closer toward each other. By the end of the 1970s, communist insurgencies outside Indochina had been effectively suppressed. Chinas militarization and territorial expansion in the South China Sea is illegal and dangerous, Vice President Pence said at the East Asia Summit last year. Figure 4 shows the overlapping sovereignty claims in the SCS, with Chinas claims according to the 9 dash line doctrine in red. Instead, perceptions of weakness may encourage leaders in Beijing to embrace more assertive behavior. Cooperation on areas of shared interest is important not only to the United States, but also to China. Diplomatic, informational, legal, and economic responses are currently underrepresented in U.S. China policy, and their incorporation into the policy toolkit will be important for successfully dissuading China over the long-term. Not taking a position on sovereignty allows the United States to flexibly intervene in the South China Sea to defend its interests and international rules and norms, while undercutting Chinese attempts to paint U.S. actions as a threat to Beijings sovereignty. It would also open the option of persistently jamming Chinese radar installations in the Spratlys. India will lose its current freedom of access into the South China Sea and much of Southeast Asia. First, the United States should feel more confident to pressure the junta on human rights concerns. China, too, considers control of these waters to be of high strategic importance. The strategically important South China Sea is an increasingly prominent stage for the spiraling tensions . When it comes to trade, investment and infrastructure development, China should not be the only game in town. This geo strategic significance is the main reason behind the fact that China and other territorial stakeholders are contesting to gain control of these maritime lane. Thats why the United States has urged countries to resolve maritime claim disputes peacefully and in accordance with international law. According to the U.S. State Department, it has been estimated that China is effectively blocking the development of $2.5 trillion worth of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea. However, Brunei's insistence that specific issues in the maritime region should be . All this will occur in a region that is increasingly the vibrant center of the world economy. Washingtons relationship with Hanoi will make that more palatable. Southeast Asia will inevitably be rendered subordinate and compliant to Chinas will. Chinas significant increase in spending and capability of its maritime forces is of note. Under President Xi Jinping, Beijing has undertaken more assertive policies that have greatly improved Beijings position in the South China Sea. India is training crews for Vietnams new Kilo-class submarines and will sell Vietnam BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles. Tackling these issues will be tricky for the United States, as many of the elites that benefit from corruption will be those with whom Washington must work to deepen ties, but this is a long-term effort worth pursuing. China is undertaking a persistent, long-term effort to establish control over the South China Sea. More than 50% of world trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, the Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait over the islands and waters of the SCS amounting to around $5 trillion. The United States can, if necessary, accept a continental Southeast Asia that leans China without major concern for Americas primary interests. 5 min. Dispersed American forces would act as countermeasure and would complicate defense planning for the Chinese military and political calculations for Beijing, while ensuring U.S. forces are positioned to support each other in the event of a crisis. We will defend freedom of the seas and skies.. The Strategic Importance of the South China Sea (With reference to the geopolitical, economic, and military aspects) South China Sea is known as one of the most significant and dangerous cluster of Islands in the contemporary world. In the contemporary era, Taiwan remains geographically at the intersection of most of East Asia's danger points. The 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea is an international treaty that sets out importantmaritime rules. The refusal, likely prompted by Beijing, might seem to be just another way for China to put pressure on Taiwan, which it has long regarded as a renegade province. In addition to fishing grounds, the South China Sea contains an abundance of energy resources, . Without the southern American presence, Chinese forces could more easily divide American forces east and west in the event of a crisis, more easily defend territorial claims or intimidate Malaysia and Indonesia, and more easily threaten maritime and air traffic crisscrossing the South China Sea. Despite all that, Beijing now faces a competition with Washington (and Delhi and Tokyo) for influence in Naypyidaw. There are certainly other situations involving other challenges, but this is the most plausible and dangerous. In the near term, this could lead to sales of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance equipment as well as patrol boats to allow Hanoi to better keep an eye on goings-on in the western South China Sea. You can update your choices at any time in your settings. But as it does so, it acts as midwife to a very real strategic realignment in Southeast Asia, one which promises to benefit the United States and its partners. All countries want positive economic and security ties with both China and the United States. In 2010, the US declared its freedom of navigation in the SCS to be a national interest in response to Chinas increasingly assertive posture. Unfortunately, the allies now lack a shared strategic outlook, thus reducing the impetus to overcome recent bilateral political hurdles. In short, adopting a more robust deterrence approach need not prevent cooperation that is in the interests of both countries. The Thai people are lurching towards a new political arrangement, a process that Thais have to see through for themselves. February 27, 2023. 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Persistent American military presence at the eastern, southern and western points of the compassespecially when combined with regional states advancing ISR capabilities, for which the United States is providing investmentwould enable the United States to respond rapidly to incidents in disputed island chains or to Chinese attacks on U.S. and allied naval and air assets or on commercial shipping. The U.S. military used Utapao for refueling efforts during operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, as well as for multinational relief efforts after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and April 2015 Nepal earthquake., The U.S.-Thai alliance has also served as a platform for important training exercises. access to Thailands military facilities, particularly the strategically located and well-equipped Utapao airbase, is considered invaluable. A third of the world's shipping passes through it, its fisheries are critical sources of food for millions of people. Countering Chinas efforts has become a key test of perceived U.S. commitment to many in the region. Ironically, the United States is drawing closer to communist Vietnam, in which human rights are serially abused, while growing apart from a major Vietnam War ally, largely due to concerns over democratic backsliding. If Chinese coercion goes unchallenged by the United States, it will send a dangerous signal about the strength of the U.S. alliance system and lessen the appeal of the United States as a security partner. The longstanding U.S. position that it takes no position on sovereignty disputes over land features in the South China Sea, while insisting that these disputes be resolved in a peaceful fashion and in accordance with international law, is sound and should be maintained. American littoral combat ships are rotating through Singapore, at the South China Seas western extremis, and the city-state has also quietly built the only Asian port outside of Yokohama at which an American aircraft carrier can dock. The Asia Program promotes policy debate and intellectual discussions on U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific as well as political, economic, security, and social issues relating to the worlds most populous and economically dynamic region. Tokyo and Manila agreed to a strategic partnership in 2011. The three core areas that must be defended and secured are the Malay Peninsula, Sabah and Sarawak. The Korean War produced formal defense treaties with each of these countries plus a new, permanent military presence in South Korea. By contrast, China views. The Balloon Incident and Evolution of Espionage. Australia and Vietnam established a Comprehensive Partnership in 2009 and agreed to expand it in 2015. China, however, must now balance its continental concerns, which remain complex, against its new dependence on the maritime domain. Thus, it is said that the South China Sea could be the battleground of World War III. Such pressure should focus on concrete, near-term objectives, such as putting a stop to reeducation of regime critics. TheSouth China Seais one of the most important economic and environmental regions in the world. Given these advantages, Washington can afford to focus on the long game in Asia, confident that Chinese adventurism is likely to push many states to turn to the United States for support. China has become increasingly assertive in the region, and regional powers from Japan to Singapore have become alarmed at China's behavior. The sea-lanes that pass through the South China Sea are the busiest, most important, maritime waterways in the world. The geopolitical message was unmistakable: Western expectations that China was transitioning toward political democracy were entirely illusory. The message will be clear; the era of American international leadership and predominance is over and a new preeminent power has taken its place. Select Accept to consent or Reject to decline non-essential cookies for this use. The lifting of the arms embargo also opens the door to other forms of U.S.-Vietnam security cooperation. Thanks to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), American power projection capabilities will be regularly present in the Philippines for the first time since the early 1990s. by Geoffrey Hartman The third will assess the policies/strategies currently employed by the United States in this arena as well as other plausible options. Thailand, of course, has been an important security partner for the United States. The United States and its Pacific allies should consider whether it is feasible and sensible to coordinate the activities of USAID, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), and Australias Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Miguel . China remains uncompromising on sovereignty, has increased its capability to enforce its de facto control in disputed areas, and has sought to advance its claims while staying below the threshold for direct military conflict with the United States. Yet, due to Turkey's strategic importance, the US cannot afford to affront Mr. Erdogan, who carries a peculiar . According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), it carries one-third of global shipping, carrying trillions of dollars in trade, making it a significant geopolitical water body. While consistency in U.S. messaging and policy execution is important, it should be balanced by carefully calculated unpredictability in operations and tactics to prevent Beijing from becoming overly confident in its ability to anticipate U.S. reactions. At the economic front, it is estimated that an annual global trade of $5.3 trillion passes through the SCS. In sum, the South China Sea is the immediate arena where two alternative geopolitical paradigms are contesting for supremacy. In 1995, the Philippines discovered that China had occupied and militarized an atoll (Mischief Reef) well within the Philippines EEZ and within maritime territory claimed by Manila. Preserving the U.S. military edge is key to maintaining the U.S. position in Asia. It is little surprise, then, that Southeast Asian states are drawing closer to the United Statesboth seeking aid in developing their own defense capabilities and hoping that stronger ties act as a deterrent to Chinese assertiveness. More importantly, it also covers the most crucial energy routes for East Asian countries to transport oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. Close allies such as Australia and Japan have a great deal to offer in terms of capability and capacity, and should be encouraged to do more. The United States, moreover, should work with its other Pacific alliesAustralia, South Korea and especially Japanto consider ways that they can lead efforts to expand infrastructure investment in Southeast Asia, perhaps by reforming and enlarging the Asian Development Bank or by launching a joint infrastructure investment fund. The United States has an interest in seeing that these partners maintain their strategic autonomy, but capacity building efforts to help them resist coercion are not keeping pace with Chinas growing capabilities. "First, South China Sea is important for the strategic patrol of Chinese SSBN [nuclear ballistic missile submarine], which needs to enter west Pacific Ocean for its nuclear deterrence against the US," he explained. South China Sea has geo-strategic, geo-politic and geo-economic importance due to half of the world trade passage and presence of precious resources of oil and gas. A critical and early Chinese test of U.S. resolve is likely to come in the South China Sea, where Washington has struggled to respond effectively to assertive Chinese behavior. China has adopted an increasingly assertive posture towards its own claims by elevating it to a core interest, strengthening its fishery law enforcement and building civilian and military facilities in the disputed islands and waters. The United States should continue to prioritize military presence in the Asia-Pacific at the same time as it invests in key capabilities, such as long-range precision strike, undersea warfare, cyber/space systems, and other capabilities that will preserve the U.S. ability to deter Chinese aggression. U.S. access to the military facilities on the South China Seas southern flank, however, would shift the regions balance of power in Americas favor. Most of China's contested land borders were remote areas with few people, natural resources or clear military utility. The South China Sea, or South East Asian Sea, is a marginal sea of the Western Pacific Ocean.It is bounded in the north by the shores of South China (hence the name), in the west by the Indochinese Peninsula, in the east by the islands of Taiwan and northwestern Philippines (mainly Luzon, Mindoro and Palawan), and in the south by Borneo, eastern Sumatra and the Bangka Belitung Islands . Does US-hegemonic decline translate into a fight between democracy and autocracy in maintaining a benign world order? Because of its location, this sea is extremely strategic because it connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans (Strait of Malacca). With the incoming administration likely to grapple early with South China Sea issues, the CSIS Southeast Asia Program, directed by Dr. Amy Searight, worked in collaboration with other Asia colleagues at CSISDr. The United States also faces a challenge in enforcing international law in the South China Sea. It is clear that increased maritime power projection in the SCS, from the Chinese in particular, has upset regional stability, and this is likely to continue. Washington (United States of America), February 27 (ANI): A Chinese J-11 fighter jet armed with air-to-air missiles intercepted the US Navy reconnaissance jet over the South China Sea, the Wall Street Journal reported. The post-war regional order. Islands in the South China Sea The islands of the South China Sea can be grouped into two island chains. China has seized the initiative in the South China Sea, however, and the United States needs to revamp its strategy to reverse current trends and escape the trap of reactive and ineffectual policymaking. China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and. Countries across the region prioritized economic growth and modernization. The isolationist China has never traditionally had a deep water navy, with a significant power projection capability; however the production of its first aircraft carrier (Liaoning) has been a noteworthy change from a soft power in the land environment to a hard power projection at sea stance. US still mired in a 'Cold War' mindset, but the tide's turning, The West is misreading Chinas Party Congress at the peril of world stability, Can Foreign Investors still have Good Reasons to be Optimistic about China? The U.S. Anil Trigunayat, 5th Generation Warfare: A Real Global Warming (Alarming) and its Implications for Pakistan, The Geopolitics of Indo-Pacific: the Rise of India and the Possible Challenges for Pakistan, 75 Years of Pakistan's Independence: Audit of Achievements and Failures, Bacterial Attack on Azerbaijani Oil a fictitious scenario, Pakistan, from the Shackles of Oligarchy to the Emergence of Democracy, Impact of Climate Change on Flood-Stricken People in Balochistan, Dimensions of Religion: Use, Misuse and Beyond, Breaking Free from Fossil Fuels: Why Nuclear Energy is Significant for Pakistan, Artificial Intelligence in Higher Education and Scientific Research: an interview with Fatima Roumate, Dalits, the Bottom of Indias Caste Ladder. The conflict and tension over competing sovereignty claims in the South China Sea has grown considerably in the past 5-10 years. In particular, Thailand has a much more benign outlook on Chinas rise and on its activities in the South China Sea, and although suggestions that Bangkok would dump Washington for Beijing are certainly overstated, Thai elites are hesitant to be drawn into what they see as a U.S. effort to contain the kingdoms largest trade partner. There were, however, cautionary signs for those prepared to see them. But the new maps contours truly began to crystallize earlier this year, when the Philippines Supreme Court ruled as constitutional a new defense agreement with the United States. In 2012, Vietnam and the Philippines sought to consolidate their partnership and alliance with the US in order to enhance their strategic position over SCS disputes.